Vision 2025: Renewable Energy mix of Pakistan

11:42 AM

To fathom these energy-mix bar charts shared on the web (predicting contradicting figures, defying logic, and no circumstantial evidence) is prodigal. This article is written for plain people of Pakistan. A normal citizen demands uninterrupted electricity with no cuts. That is it.

For now, we have seen that the futile scheme to repudiate Circular Debt and improve energy deficiency seems to have failed. So Renewable energy is a hard nut to crack, I digress, we have got to give it a try. The renewable energy role in energy mix is under one per cent. To be precise, present RE mix of Pakistan is 0.7 per cent and the Government has set a target to raise RE contribution in energy mix by additional 0.5 per cent every following year. This means by the year 2025, it should be somewhere around 10 per cent. Whereas, it should be around 20 per cent now in any developed country as per the international trends.



It happens to us that, we thus far a “stricken nation” of shut down factories, shattered confidence and millions without work or hope. Our PM addressed us, earlier this year, in the name of revised estimates of Nandipur Power Project, mischievously, while cost tax payers are prodded. Pakistan will go for more coal fired electricity than furnace oil. This is the main point of the power policy 2013-18. Energy mix will be changed in 3-5 years so the electricity prices remain affordable and load shedding is eliminated by gradual increase in generation. The energy policy initiatives in PPP regime or even before were being drawn on the same out fashioned lines, so they lacked implementation, as ever. The deal could be striking a right balance between available financial resources and the concentration of the effort. One window opperation for the facilitation of businessmen in the field of Renewable Energy was the most essential point of debate in Vision 2025 debates.
We are not seeing the fruit of MoU signings by provincial governments. Punjab is implementing Jinnah Solar Park in Bahawalpur. No, we have not seen any fruits yet. In fact, KhyberPakhtunkhwa, and Sindh where energy is under more severe attack, their local Chief Ministers are not agreeing on mechanisms to deal with the impasse. That's why their CMs were not accompanied along with the PM in his recent visit to China. It is the stupidity that lurks in our country waters. The need of the hour is to create unison between Government organizations. KP has it own plans for implementing its solar electrification of 5800 houses in rural. Fair enough; however, they are delaying the tender assignments. Execution is delayed. KP FEDRO is stuck in the phase of feasibility since the start of September, finding after having assigned tenders to successful bidders who would install 356 MHP plants and soon a similar project is expected to be announced in FATA as well. Baluchistan has its own security dynamics. Miriam Kartz from ‘The Feasibility of Renewable Energy in Pakistan’, Triple Bottom Line Magazine described the potential as “Solar energy is abundant and remains unharnessed except for a few isolated project. If only 0.25 per cent of the land area of the province of Baluchistan were covered by solar panels of 20 per cent efficiency, this would be enough to provide electricity to the entire country”. Security becomes a pork barrel.

So what is the big deal in implementing RE favoured energy policy? Government has a plan to achieve such high targets through a major focus on Photovoltaic and Wind energy. Presently, Micro Hydro Power (MHP) is major contributor. Pakistan Council for Renewable Energy (PCRET) has installed 562 MHP to generate 9.73 MW on real time.

Everybody knows the opportunity to tap sunlight for power generation. Going solar is one commercially off the shelf solution. An initial debate regarding setting up solar water heater program at PCRET with technical support of BS (Bejieng Solar Energy Research Institute) is under way. I can convince the reader of the advantages of grid connected Photovoltaic power system; however the legislation and working principle becomes the main hindrance when institutions like CBR, serving tempestuous, so devise policies which discourage development of this industry. Not many banks are tendering loans for domestic solar installations. For example, Bank of Punjab, works on a model where the whole cost pays off in 3 to 4 years, yet the application criteria is tough. Under such circumstances, with the help of increased stakeholders like volunteers from children and women, this industry can expand. Volunteers? people who actually apply for such loans.

There are application specific projects (Solar stoves, Rickshaws, Geysers, street lamps) are tentatively small in effect; the technology to infer is way too underestimated by simplistic approaches seen quite often. Luckily, some PSDPs of PCRET have been completed during last two year are as: PSDP- Biogass 25000 Biogass plants June 30, 2013, PSDP- Installaiton 100 MHP in Earthquake affected areas June 30, 2013, PSDP- Production of 80 kW PV modules June 30, 2014. Some in pipeline are as: Solar electrification of 1000 tube wells i least developed areas of Pakistan, Photovoltaic systems for 250000 homes and offices, Installation of 120 Mini and Micro Hydel plants, Green public building (solar electrification) on constitution avenue.

We could think of freeing up at least the commercial sector from the national grid and powering it by solar energy will save up to 3000 MW. It can be done in set ups of 500 KW provided- roof support and enough space. Last year, 305 MW solar panels were imported without any duties. This year target of import of solar is 650 MW; however, tax rate would be much higher and close to 34 per cent. Such high duties are being disliked and importers are negotiating with Government to lower such high tax rate. PCRET is playing a key role to encourage the installation of solar power systems in Pakistan by mediating. Quite the contrary, CBM be done by politicians to ensure that interest of social-corporate sector is restored.

A total capacity of 1 MW to 4 MW power wind mills will be produced locally. Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Heavy Mechanical Complex (HMC) and SUPARCO have joined hands for the manufacturing. Installation of small scaled Hydropower plant at PCRET and establishment of Micro Hydro power Research and Training center is initiated. There is an on-going, joint venture by Henzuh Research Center (HRC) Governement of China and PCRET with a budget allocation of USD 1.8 Million as well. A project of small scale power plants has already reached a work progress of 20 per cent under 17th protocol of SinoPak of S&T development.

The main advantage of off grid solar system is anti-power theft. However, one would wish to sell out power surplus to WAPDA, that is on grid. The main challenge of grid tying, this way, is admissible. The current position is that there are just two isolated 178 KW systems mounted; one at Pakistan Engineering Council and the other with Planning Division, which render electricity to the grid. Decisively, there is no tariff for pouring it off to NDC. Worldwide solar systems perfect on a scale of 500 Mega Watts to 1000 Mega Watts, are common feature.

It is time that we start comparing apples to apples. Let's invest in PhotoVoltaic panel production line. There are three categories of Photovoltaic. A, B, and C. The merciless solar panels for sale in Chaman are C graded with efficiency not more than 65 per cent in any case.You want that? Or you want the existence of continued hegemony of initial market enterers who loot the not so aware consumer and rips off their money and trust by selling sub-standard energy solutions which apparently look an easy buy but are not dependable. They are not technology manufacturers they are bloody importers.That is it. Name one local company, bid Nizam, GraceSolar, Akhtar, ##&&@@!!, x.y.z. which is actually manufacturing grid-tie inverters? They do not even know the current flow principle. Yes I know, best engineering students from engineering institutes of the country know, for them it might appear difficult on large scale; yet plausible with the right kind of expertise and an honest vision.
I think every Pakistani should buy-Pakistani. You can give jobs to many. Just remember the A grade solar panels cost roughly 69 Pakistan Rupees per Watt on import as compared to India’s Pakistan Rupees 74 per Watt equivalent. Are you ready to set-up production lines for solar panel manufacturing of several Mega Watt capacity? Are you bringing in those engineers in the equation, I have the solutions ready for you, where we can produce our own solar panels for much cheaper or at least avoid the hassle of imports and bring down those crocodiles who are doing undue profiteering.

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This blog is about my PhD work and an archive to my engineering education. However, additional study material for the courses i teach and that i have studied is also archived here.
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